🔗 Share this article Will Scotland finally end their New Zealand curse? The All Blacks implemented three modifications to the squad that defeated the Irish team Autumn Nations Series: Scotland v New Zealand Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh When: Saturday, 8 November Kick-off: 15:10 GMT Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland. After defeating three home nations, New Zealand had finally been halted in a Test. A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain." Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but clear signs that success might be imminent. Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, indeed, the pattern continued. Recent History Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes. During his tenure, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos. Squad Updates In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way. Through their brilliance, their power, game management, they get the job done. We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality. Key Absences Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts. Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been too worrying. During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship. Replacement Concerns Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of limited game time. Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard. Coaching Choices The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach. The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable. Past Encounters Graham crossed the line in the 31-23 defeat to New Zealand in the previous encounter Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick. Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing. By the Numbers Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches going back three years, they've accumulated scores in the first half and fewer after halftime. Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps. Required Performance During their last meeting, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily. The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - and keep it there. In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks. Conclusion Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over. But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham. Optimistic thinking, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.